I see that we have a rise in volume, the squeeze has not started to form yet, so I am expecting it to be choppy within that 295, 260 range till squeeze forms. Notice how SPY rejected .618 retracement.
To note, we didn’t break 100sma and we broke support and fell through. For this upcoming week, I do not see us having significant moves and would tend to believe that we will be flat again (unless some major news comes out that we are not expecting it). I would not go and short the market with the whole portfolio this week; I would position it in a way that it can be neutral or manageable to both sides. Till the squeeze has no formed, I would only play to the downside with further exp otm puts and would not be getting near exp puts.
For this week, range I see between 272 and 295. I don’t take off the table that the market can take off and go above 295 as well (AAPL can help with it with the moves it showed Thursday/Friday).
For the following weeks (could be months), 260-270 with a pin around 264 (if we fall through) and 295-300 (300 is a heavy resistance); therefore, a breakout to a higher price of 310+ very possible as well.
Analysts also mentioned rough May and June according to their algo models (their algo models have helped us identify previous week’s selloffs and spike in VIX).
The market is #1, you are #2 (not another way around).
Viktor P, guest blog