Huge test of key resistance lines on Monday or Tuesday. If we bounce of these, it’s definitely going to look like the momentum has left the rally. I’ve learned that when you lose momentum, you’re typically heading down after that. If we fail to make a new high and come back down and make a new short term low beneath 2,730 it’s going to be a very bearish pattern.
There might be a little positive market sentiment in regards to opening the economy in various areas. But there’s still obviously huge uncertainty and on a national level the daily deaths are aren’t trending down yet and new cases are still increasing. To open the economy and keep it open we’ll need the number of cases and deaths to get to a very low level as well as lots of testing and we’re no where near that yet.
Most of the hype around exciting stimulus measures has probably faded. We’ll get more Q1 earnings soon. I’m guessing people are waiting a little to see how those look.
Obviously, we’ll keep getting slammed with lots of bad economic data. But the market seems to stomach that without much issue. I literally don’t know what kind of job report it would take to scare the market, it seems pretty impervious to that.
The spirit of a 10 year bull market doesn’t die easily.
I still don’t think this will end without coming back down and retesting the march lows. If we slice right through those and can’t make new highs beyond where we currently are. Then the narrative a “V shaped recovery” will diminish and reality of an economic cycle turning over will start to come into focus.
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